World Bank predicts steady 2026 metals pricing

The metals and minerals price index of the Washington-based World Bank Group steadied in November, with the organization predicting more of the same for 2026 and 2027. The index is comprised of six nonferrous metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc) plus iron ore.

The November stability (actually a 0.5 percent increase) occurred after a 6 percent index increase in October, “building on a 4 percent rise in the third quarter of 2025,” says World Bank.

The institution says the metals price gains “are supported by resilient demand and emerging supply concerns, particularly for copper.”

Continues World Bank, “Prices for most base metals are expected to firm further in 2026 and 2027 as modest demand growth coincides with tightening supply conditions.”

The organization says volatility remains a possibility in the next two years. “While a range of upside risks could push metal prices above baseline projections—including possible production disruptions, new trade restrictions, and a faster than expected expansion of data centers—the overall balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.”

The organization says, “Weaker than anticipated growth in major economies continues to pose the most significant risk to metal demand,” potentially keeping prices in check.

Among the seven metals in the index, World Bank predicts aluminum, nickel, tin and copper are expected to see the largest price increases during the next two years, with copper and tin projected to reach new record highs in nominal United States dollar terms.

The organization says it expects its base metal price index to increase by almost 2 percent during the two-year period, with previously mentioned supply constraints expected in the aluminum, copper and tin sectors.

On the pricing downside, “Subdued global growth, including in China, may temper the pace of demand expansion,” write Jeetendra Khadan and Kaltrina Temaj of World Bank.

Steelmaking in the People’s Republic of China has been on a recent downward trajectory, likely providing one reason why the World Bank staff members write, “Iron ore prices [are] expected to decline further in 2026 and 27, falling below 2019 levels.”