Rising mill output creates ferrous market anticipation

Prices for recycled steel in the United States seem poised to languish in mid-November in a steady-to-downward range that has characterized the market since June. A source of encouragement in the second half of this year, however, has been rising output at U.S. steel mills.

In the week ending Nov. 8, mills in the U.S. produced nearly 1.76 million tons of raw steel at melt shops, according to the Washington-based American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), with mills operating at a capability utilization (capacity) rate of 76.7 percent.

That level represents a 9.1 percent jump from melt shop output of about 1.61 million tons during the comparable week in 2024, when mills were operating at a 72.6 percent capacity rate.

Weekly growth figures have helped the U.S. steel industry boost its year-to-date output figures beyond the pace set in 2024. According to AISI, as of Nov. 8, year-to-date production of more than 77.2 million tons represents a 3.1 percent increase compared with the 74.9 million tons made in the same period last year.

The uptick was not evident in the first quarter of 2025 but has gained momentum throughout the year, AISI figures reveal.  

The organization’s report for the week ending May 31 show a weekly output total of more than 1.75 million tons, 2.8 percent higher measured against the comparable week in 2024, and 0.7 percent higher compared with the previous week.

Because of weak output figures in the first quarter of 2025, however, year-to-date U.S. steel output remained 0.5 percent lower year on year after five full months, according to AISI.

Among the factors likely boosting mill operating rates in the U.S. have been tariffs on imported steel of up to 50 percent.

That policy was very much on the mind of SA Recycling CEO George Adams when he took the stage to speak at a meeting at the late October Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) convention in Bangkok.

At the event, Adams said the Trump administration tariffs on inbound metal “are single-handedly saving our steel industry in the U.S."

“If you can take our scrap and ship it and then can make steel and make it cheaper and ship it back, something is wrong," Adams said.

The rising output at U.S. melt shops has not yet prompted higher bids for recycled steel, according to per-ton price figures tracked by the Raw Material Data Aggregation Service (RMDAS) of MSA Inc. or Davis Index.

A factor that has proven its ability to affect pricing as recently as early this year started making an appearance in early November—severe winter weather.

A wave of snowfall and bitter cold hit portions of sizable scrap generating and processing markets including Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland in the second week of November. The one cold front may not be enough to influence pricing dynamics, but a sequence of such disruptions combined with ongoing strong demand by mills has the ability to cause some mill buyers to bid up their prices.

On the demand side, recycled steel exports from the U.S. and European Union shrunk in the first half of this year, according to statistics presented at the BIR meeting.

First-half 2025 figures gathered for the Brussels-based BIR’s Ferrous Division were presented by that group’s statistics adviser Rolf Willeke at the Bangkok event. Willeke portrayed a landscape where melt shops in several large steelmaking nations have been consuming less scrap, and recycled steel volumes traded across borders also have receded.

The statistics indicate the U.S. reduced its recycled steel exports by 16.6 percent in the first half of this year compared with early 2024.

The confluence of trade factors likely provides one reason that during the second week of November, Davis Index was tracking bids and trades exhibiting sideways pricing or, in a few cases, modest increases in the value of recycled steel.

A Nov. 10 report from Davis Index shows bids made to West Coast bulk shippers were flat, citing waning export demand and adequate mill inventories at melt shops in East Asia.

Another Davis Index report on the same day portrayed modest ($3- to $5-per-ton) increases in bids made for bulk shipments from the ports of Houston and Boston. Those modest price rises were reported for shredded scrap, the plate and structural grade and for No. 1 heavy melting steel.

The price stability may be due for a shakeup. As the U.S. recycled steel market heads toward the end of 2025, a mixture of factors involving bad weather, healthy steel mill output and shifting trade patterns are poised to keep processors and traders on their toes.