Steel output rises in top economies in January

Statistics gathered and distributed by the Brussels-based World Steel Association (Worldsteel) portray a 6.5 percent decline in global steel output this January compared with January 2025 in the 69 countries that cooperate with the group.

The majority of that decline occurred in the People’s Republic of China, whose national steel trade association reported a 13.9 percent decline in China’s output in January 2026 compared with one year earlier.

Atilla Widnell of Singapore-based Navigate Commodities says satellite monitoring of more than 220 blast furnaces in China the firm tracks show steel production in that nation likely did ratchet down in January as furnace operators prepared for the mid-February Chinese New Year holiday.

Two LinkedIn posts made in February by Widnell and Navigate, however, tie into ongoing skepticism he has expressed for several months regarding production figures reported from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) and a news service based in that nation.

“We’ve been banging the drum for the past six months (at least) on how some Chinese data/indicators have become highly unreliable,” writes Widnell. “It’s a bitter/hard pill to swallow, as it shatters all of our widely held illusions of the established order of Chinese steel output and iron ore demand.”

The tracking behind Widnell’s skepticism has prompted him to say he does not expect the January 2026 slowdown in China to signal a trend. Earlier this week, he wrote, “Navigate Commodities has detected a noticeable improvement in capacity utilization rates across the 229 Chinese blast furnaces monitored daily.”

For steel producers in the rest of the world—who long have decried a circumstance where China, with about 17 percent of the world’s population, makes more than half of the world’s steel—a continuation of Chinese output at early 2020 levels would not be welcome.

Tariffs and other protectionary measures may be providing confidence to melt shop managers in several nations beyond China in the first month of this year, who churned out more steel for whatever variety of reasons.

China’s (reported) year-on-year 6.6 million metric tons (mmt) decline in steel output this January helped cause the world’s output to fall by 4.1 mmt in the same time frame.

Production in six of the other nine leading steelmaking nations, however, increased this January compared with January 2025. That roster includes rising output in: Germany (+15.0 percent); India (+10.5 percent); Turkey (5.8 percent); South Korea (K+5.0 percent); and the United States (+3.3 percent), according to Worldsteel.

The presence of the U.S., Turkey and India on that list could be interpreted as a source of good news for steel recyclers in the U.S., who have experienced rising values for the secondary commodity early this year thanks to severe weather that is restricting supply and the healthy demand landscape.