Asphalt Shingles Predicted to Stay on Top

Demand for roofing products in the United States has been forecast to grow 2.4 percent per year through 2014 to become a $17.9 billion industry.

A study prepared by The Freedonia Group Inc., a Cleveland-based industry research firm, says these gains will be modest, but they will represent “a reversal of the declines over the 2004 to 2009 period.”

Advances will be driven by an expected rebound in housing starts from the depressed levels in 2009. Although housing starts will remain below the level reached in 2005, the recovery will fuel above-average gains in the residential roofing market through 2014. These and other trends are presented in Freedonia’s study called “Roofing,” available from the group for $4,900.

The residential re-roofing market will continue to account for the largest overall share of roofing demand in 2014. It represented slightly less than 60 percent of the market in 2009, with re-roofing applications representing the vast majority of residential roofing sales.

Demand for roofing in the non-residential building construction market is forecast to remain constant through 2014. Increasing construction expenditures in the office and commercial and institutional construction markets will promote gains, says The Freedonia Group. However, a decline in demand for roofing in the industrial construction market will offset some of those advances.

Asphalt shingles are the largest selling roofing product because of their dominant position in the large residential roofing market. Demand for asphalt shingles will rise through 2014, fueled by rebounding housing starts. Laminated asphalt shingles, which totaled only one-third of the shingle market in 1999, are projected to account for 80 percent of asphalt shingle demand in 2014. In the long term, the increasing use of laminated shingles will constrain replacement demand, as these products can have life spans more than twice that of conventional asphalt shingles.

Demand for roofing tile products—at 5.8, percent the biggest gainer—will be driven by the rebound in housing starts and the continued increase in the population of the West and the South regions where roofing tile is most commonly used. Demand for green roofing products, such as composite shingles and photovoltaic roofing, is forecast to advance more than 4 percent annually through 2014. Gains will be led by rising interest in environmentally friendly roofing products that reduce building utility costs.